Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Transfers

The first signing of the new season and subsequent transfer window has been made: Arsenal have (finally) signed Chamakh. The prospect of clubs buying and selling always pushes people all over towards thinking about all kinds of deals they think would be best for their club. Another striker or another attacking midfielder? Who should play alongside their star center half? Who would be the perfect holding midfielder? Everyone thinks they know what their team needs, and they think they know who would be perfect for the position.

But I don't think that realistically, most people actually have the bigger picture in mind. As a Chelsea fan, I think I know who they should bring in, and who should go but the truth is that it would be very easy to bring in big players for what I want, and not get what the club actually need. So here's what I think can realistically happen and why...

As I have said before, the core of the team is good, but they need some brilliance to make the difference so that the team can win the prize they desire more than anything else: the Champion's League. In order for this to work, the team needs to become the Anchovy's. And this can only happen when the Anchovy decides how he wants the team to play, and then decided who he'd like to play, and how and where and buys accordingly.

A lot has been said of late about character and identity, and the club not only finding theirs but also enforcing it in the same way like clubs like Manchester United, Arsenal, Inter Milan and Barcelona do. Now there is a lot that goes into the identity of a team, and Chelsea has been seen as not having an identity which I don't think is entirely true. In fact, part of the problem that the manager has been facing is that the formation he wanted to play (the diamond) did not fit with the way the team played. Granted a formation does not define the way a team plays but it does facilitate it. Arsenal's fluid and attacking style of football probably wouldn't work in anything but a 4-3-3, and while Barcelona have recently tried to play more of a 4-4-2 with Messi playing off Ibrahomovic and the left back moving into the wing while being supported by the third midfielder, their predisposition towards zonal pressure and compact team movement means it is actually more of a 4-2-3-1. In the case of Barcelona, their identity is based on attacking and fluid football which is unobtrusively obsessed with possession, and because everyone from their center halves to their strikers try to play inside the penalty area no formation could ever curtail or expand their desire to score as many goals as possible.

Chelsea have, for a while now, been based on the Dutch attacking 4-3-3 system with an extremely strong midfield, a lethal striker and creativity and pace coming off the wings and fullbacks. Mourinho's obsession with controlling the game meant that they often let their opponents make the first and changed accordingly to ensure that they first neutralised their opponents in the most clinical way possible, and then won the game by making their attacking gameplan work. This obsession also meant that the team were always focused on balance too, and that is probably one of their greatest strengths.

Now, the Anchovy is attempting to change this to a certain extent in that he is trying to inject more creativity and flair into midfield and in doing so the team are playing more attacking football. And this is great because it also means that the team are far more balanced in their general movement. He is also trying to get the attacks to start from the back, and the defence to start from the front and has made the entire team move more which means that they stay more compact. But this has only worked to a certain extent and the truth is that in order for this to work effectively the team need to buy a few more players who will fit into the new style of play.

But one can only buy when one knows how the team will line up in the future, and that is directly affected by who is currently available and how they line up. In the past I have spoken about the conundrums that Chelsea need to solve before the team can move forward: Anelka and Drogba, Malouda and Lampard and finally Joe Cole. But these can only be solved once a formation has been decided: Diamond or Dutch 4-3-3. And before this is decided it would be prudent to examine who the team will be inheriting from the youth academy, which is hoping to become as prolific as Barcelona's in the future.

So, who will be becoming available shortly?
Gael Kakuta - A number 10 attacking midfielder able to play on the wings or behind the strikers. He caused a lot of hype and has looked to be brilliant but I guess only time will tell if he does live up to his hype. Looking like he will though. Will be in the squad next season.

Daniel Sturridge - Bought from Manchester City this season and is looking to be a great leading man. Strong, fast and powerful, makes direct and driving runs like Drogba does and is not afraid to shoot. Has already scored a few goals in the FA Cup, and is also English. Not sure about him yet to be honest, but I think playing him on the right is a good idea because he's a left footed player.

Fabio Borini - He is Inzaghi. Plays off the last defender, clinical shot with great movement and link up play. I fear he may not be physically strong enough because he is quite young and small but that doesn't mean he can't make it. Should maybe play on the right wing moving inside, and shooting. Very fast with fantastic off-the-ball movement.

Marco Mitrovic - A tall and athletic Swede who is technically excellent. Bears a remarkable resemblance to Ibrahimovic, with fantastic movement up front. Leads the line exceptionally well, and brings others into the play. Still only 17, so given a few years he, Borini and Sturridge are quite possibly the future of Chelsea's attacking force. A rather daunting prospect for any opposition.

Nemanja Matic - Bought at the beginning of this season, Matic started out as a left sided central midfielder. He's rather strong and technically great. Moved by the Academy (at the Anchovy's request) to a holding role, he will be in the squad next season. And, I wouldn't be surprised if he steals Mikel's starting position because he is more comfortable going forwards as well as being strong sitting deep, passing and winning headers. And Essien-like player, on the left hand side I guess.

Jeffrey Bruma - Also going to be in the squad as of next season. A Dutch center half who started out as an attacking midfielder. Solid in defence and is very comfortable on the ball. Also rather good at free kicks, as his hero (apparently) used to be Gerrard. Looks to be VERY good and has already made a few first team appearances, with reasonable success.

Patrick van Aanholt - An attacking and technical left back. Went on loan to Newcastle for two months where he held down a position in the starting lineup. Has made two substitute first team league appearances and has looked a little reserved but still strong. Put in a few great crosses, and is a good defender. Likely to be in the squad next season, and played as a view to replace Ashley Cole eventually.

Connor Clifford - Plays on the left hand side of midfield, and is a fantastic central midfielder with a really high work rate. Scores a good number of goals, especially quite a few long range drives, with is really impressive. Currently the captain of the youth team. Strikes me as being similar to Lampard in that he does a lot really well, including attacking and defending. Probably only be in the team in a year or two.

Kaby - The perfect cross between Frank Lampard and Michael Essien, equally comfortable moving forwards and defending with a fantastic passing range. Enforces well, and in the youth team he and Clifford support McEachran to move in and out of space as required, while staying deep enough to cover for the overlapping fullbacks.

Josh McEachran - A wonderful 16 year old who has the same sort of attacking play as Kakuta. Brilliant at running a game from midfield. In the youth team he attacks from central midfield, and drifts from side to side playing defence splitting passes as well as moving into space to score. Fantastic left foot. Is also an English player, which is a major plus for the club. Will also only be in the team in a few years time, probably.

Jacopo Sala - A fantastic right footed attacking wing midfielder / striker. Very technically good. Fast, athletic and great with link up play. Tends to move inside to play off the striker.

Goukan Tore - Left footed attacking wing midfielder / striker. Also technically good with an equally matched propensity to drift inside and link up with the striker. Tall and strong, wins headers well.


Right, so after that we should consider how those players are used. The Academy play a 4-3-3 with three strikers up front, one leading the line and an attacking midfielder playing behind the striker, sometimes dropping off and bringing a central midfielder in and other times pushing forwards into the box. Everything runs through that player, with the wings moving inside and outside as they are played into space by the AM. There are two defensive / central midfielders playing on either side who cover for the wingbacks, both of whom are effectively midfielders who get forward and either cut inside or overlap to cross and link up play. The central midfielders and the center halves run the game while the outside players come forward and inside to attack.

This system seems to work rather well, partially because it is / was similar to what the club played in the first team and partially because it is very attacking with lots of emphasis on technical ability, tactical understanding and positioning and fast and decisive passing. These are the elements that the club's identity is based on. With this in mind the Anchovy needs to decide on a system for next season so he can buy and sell accordingly.

Now, at the beginning he wanted a diamond which worked for Drogba and Anelka and didn't work for Lampard, Malouda and Joe Cole. Deco seemed indifferent, and for the most part the fullbacks, center halves and holding midfielder were not affected. The system was then changed to a 4-3-3 which worked for Lampard, Malouda, Joe Cole, Drogba OR Anelka (meaning not both at the same time) and again the defence was not affected. Then the system was altered a bit to be more of a 4-2-3-1 and this worked for everyone including Deco but excluding the holding midfielders (because they are required to play more like central midfielders) and Drogba OR Anelka.

Now, the temptation to revert to the diamond is once again raised because it clearly was the Anchovy's preferred system at Milan, and what he wanted at Chelsea. But the truth is that it was never going to work because of the players he has. At Milan the Anchovy played a Deco style player at the base of the diamond who sprayed passes around with no pressure on himself because he sat so deep. Then there were two attacking wing players who moved out wide to cross, and moved inside to defend. The fullbacks overlapped to create additional width but retreated into their own halves at the first sign of danger. There were two target men in the box, and an attacking midfielder played behind them to link the midfield when the wing players were being pushed back, as well as to create a threat from deep. Kaka performed this role perfectly.

Problem is that there are not enough of the right type of player at Chelsea to do that. They do have two fantastic strikers, but no one to play behind them, only one player can sit deep and distribute (Deco) but his propensity NOT to defend is a problem. Malouda can operate from deep and move outside, but there is no one to do this on the right hand side. To be honest, I think it would take too much adjustment to play this formation because it would mean bringing in another left sided attacking winger, two right sided attacking wingers, hope that Joe Cole can regain form and play behind the strikers with Kakuta being the backup, and something drastic would have to change with players possibly working at the base of the diamond. And then you would be leaving Lampard and Ballack out which would be a problem. And then the youth team has a lot of players who may not be able to fit into this formation...

The most viably option seems, in my opinion to play the 4-2-1-3 formation that the youth team are already playing. That way players will come through and slot perfectly into their positions, with the experience current players are providing. It is, of course, his choice and so I will outline what I think is a problem and then who should be brought in to fix the problem.

Goalkeepers:

The truth is that while Cech is great and Turnbull looks like a good number three goalkeeper, Hilaro is also a number three goalkeeper. And Chelsea need another number one goal keeper to compete with Cech for his starting position. I would bring in someone who can play as a number one and push Cech for his position. Chelsea have a few young keepers but I don't know if any of them are good enough. For that reason I would suggest releasing Hilaro and bringing in Igor Akinfeev who is a fantastic keeper playing for CSKA Moscow. I'm sure with Abramovic's connections he could make a deal happen.
- Cech, Akinfeev, Turnbull

Defence:

In terms of defence, the team are pretty solid. I don't think Terry is going anywhere anytime soon and I think Carvalho will be used less and less over the next season or two but will most likely stay on for a while. Ivanovic is fantastic, and plays in the center or on the right and Alex is, in my opinion, much better than Terry or Carvalho. In fact, I'd like to see Ivanovic and Alex played in the center and see what happens. And with Carvalho with one foot out the door, and Bruma coming through the central defence is well populated.

Left back is sorted with Ashley Cole and Yury Zhirkov being, in my opinion, two of the best left backs in the world. In fact, I think that will be excellent because I think that Zhirkov will be pushing A Cole for his position all the way and that is fantastic. And of course there will be van Aanholt pushing for a position in the starting lineup. I would not be surprised to see Zhirkov played in midfield a few times just to make space for van Aanholt.

Right back is a bit of a problem. With no youth coming through the current options are Bosingwa, Bellitti and Ferriera. Now, I would like to see Bellitti go on seen as his contract is pretty much up, and I am not sure the club would kepe Ferriera on. At the very least they need to bring another young right back in, and if they don't let Ferriera go they need to bring a very good 20 - 23 year old in. No clue who though to be honest but they need to do some shopping around.
- Zhirkov, A Cole, van Aanholt
- Terry, Alex, Ivanovic, Carvalho, Bruma
- Bosingwa, Ferriera, (young right back)

Midfield:

Midfield will consist of two central midfielders and an attacking midfielder. If we assume that the younger players are coming through well, then there isn't too much buying to do. If the Anchovy decided to buy and play someone and Kakuta in the attacking midfield position then the other two positions can be filled by Lampard, Ballack, Essien and Mikel who are currently in the first team. Nemanja Matic will be coming through and I think he may well steal Mikel's position from him but the risk is the age gap between Lampard and Ballack and Connor Clifford and Kaby. If the two of them can start coming through (with Josh McEachran making a few appearances too) then the midfield will be extremely strong. Otherwise it will be stretched thin. I think a wise buy for the 'someone' would be Rafael van der Vaart. He is more disciplined than Joe Cole but could also play on the right wing, he would be a good playmaker at the right age and with him and Kakuta in midfield the strikers would be extremely difficult to stop.

- Lampard, Ballack, (Clifford), (Kaby)
- Essien, Matic, Mikel
- van der Vaart, Kakuta, (McEachran)

Forwards:

I would keep Malouda on the left and alternate between playing Drogba and Anelka in the center depending on what you are looking for with Joe Cole on the right. Between the central striker, wings and attacking midfielder I think there would be plenty of chance creation going on. I have left out Kalou's name on purpose: I think the team should sell him. He is erratic and probably not good enough anyway. With Sturridge and Borini in the squad there is plenty of firepower in terms of creativity, pace, power and precision up front. And of course Mitrovic is coming through to be able to take over from Drogba and Anelka as the man to lead the line with Sala and Tore available in a year or two to take over from Malouda and Joe Cole as 'creative', attacking midfielders supporting the striker(s).
- Malouda, Borini, (Tore)
- Anelka, Drogba, (Mitrovic)
- Joe Cole, Sturridge, (Sala)

In the end I'd go with the 4-2-1-3 which facilitates tactical flexibility, strong attacking football with a high tempo and direct and quick passing, and most importantly is balanced. Basically, Chelsea's identity.

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